A free, stable platform illustrating turnkey collective “microprediction”
You can predict here, or have things predicted for you. Even chatgpt groks it.
1. Turnkey live prediction (see publishing docs)
You can create your own stream by:
- Modify create_a_stream.py.
- Then peruse the publising docs to discover other ways to send data.
2. Turnkey benchmarking (see prediction docs)
On the other hand, you can supply predictions in real-time:
- Instantly participate using a default algorithm (see setup).
- Manually submit predictions by modifying enter_die_contest_one_off.py.
- Then review the prediction docs for submission patterns more likely to generalize.
Brief explanation
The streams at microprediction.org are all created by people who repeatedly publish ground truths. Algorithms poll these streams and the ongoing battles produce beautiful community cumulative distribution functions, such as the CDF representing the 1-hour ahead forecasts of the logarithm of Google price changes. There are rewards for good prediction determined daily. For a longer discussion see the videos or the book collateral.
Equity contest streams:
Want to win the daily prize?
Not to be overlooked:
- Setup will get you participating immediately.
- Slack channel and Friday google meet.
- Glossary and summary of key API commands.
- Video tutorials, free data and prizes.
- Limited consulting to help you assess vendors.
To chase the daily $125 prize for prediction, it is suggested that you join the slack or Friday meet so we can help you get started.
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Documentation map
