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Term Intent
microprediction The act of making repeated predictions of the same thing frequently enough for autonomous assessment to be meaningful
crawler A python class for predicting multiple streams using a long-running single process
submission vector A list of 225 monte carlo samples indicative of the distribution of a future measurement. Aka stochastic information packet.
skating Refers to the making of predictions in an online fashion. Applies to both time-series methods in the timemachines package, and also the StreamSkater crawler.
cdf Cumulative distribution. Usually that implied by all the predictions contributed to a given forecast horizon. See any page such as faang1&horizon=3555.
daily prize See daily prize
horizon When predictions are made a horizon (also called delay) is specified. The ground truth is the first data point to be published after the delay has elapsed
delay See horizon. Delays are 70, 310, 910 or 3555 seconds.
publish To send a scalar value to the microprediction system repeatedly, thereby creating a stream
stream A live time-series of scalar values that is subject to distributional prediction. See the stream listing
polling Refers to scheduled publishing, often using the MicroPoll class.
change function Used in publishing changes of live quantities, or transforms of the same, using MultiChangePoll or similar.
zscores The distributional transform implied by (most of the) community predictions for pertaining to a particular horizon.
zstreams Streams of zscores
copulas In mathematics, a multivariate distribution with uniform margins. Here it usually refers to refers to z2~ or z3~ streams and their predictions. These are streams that are the result of merging two or three distributional transforms using a space-filling curve
space-filling curve A map from the one dimension to two or three. See copulas
write key A private unique identifier. See writekeys
difficulty The number of recognizable characters beginning a public key. See writekeys
public key The hash of a private key. See writekeys
code Synonym for public key. See writekeys
memorable unique identifier A synonym for private unique identifier. See writekeys
burn To create a new write key by trial and error. See writekeys
bankruptcy When the balance associated with a write key falls below a threshold negative number
transfer To move balance from one write key to another
colab A hosted Python notebook environment provided by Google. See New_Key for example.
slack A chat service. See slack for invite.
ground truth A scalar value sent to microprediction, to serve as a target. See publish
submit To send 225 scalars to microprediction. See predict
client Usually refers to the microprediction python package
leaderboard Usually refers to leaderboards shown at
browser Refers to
dashboard Refers to after you paste a write key in to see their performance and transactions.
lagged values Refers to recent values of streams. See predict-using-python for usage example.
z1~ streams Streams prefixed by z1~. See zscores
z2~ streams Streams prefixed by z2~. See copulas
z3~ streams Streams prefixed by z3~. See copulas

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