Glossary
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| Term | Intent |
|---|---|
| microprediction | The act of making repeated predictions of the same thing frequently enough for autonomous assessment to be meaningful |
| crawler | A python class for predicting multiple streams using a long-running single process |
| submission vector | A list of 225 monte carlo samples indicative of the distribution of a future measurement. Aka stochastic information packet. |
| skating | Refers to the making of predictions in an online fashion. Applies to both time-series methods in the timemachines package, and also the StreamSkater crawler. |
| cdf | Cumulative distribution. Usually that implied by all the predictions contributed to a given forecast horizon. See any page such as faang1&horizon=3555. |
| daily prize | See daily prize |
| horizon | When predictions are made a horizon (also called delay) is specified. The ground truth is the first data point to be published after the delay has elapsed |
| delay | See horizon. Delays are 70, 310, 910 or 3555 seconds. |
| publish | To send a scalar value to the microprediction system repeatedly, thereby creating a stream |
| stream | A live time-series of scalar values that is subject to distributional prediction. See the stream listing |
| polling | Refers to scheduled publishing, often using the MicroPoll class. |
| change function | Used in publishing changes of live quantities, or transforms of the same, using MultiChangePoll or similar. |
| zscores | The distributional transform implied by (most of the) community predictions for pertaining to a particular horizon. |
| zstreams | Streams of zscores |
| copulas | In mathematics, a multivariate distribution with uniform margins. Here it usually refers to refers to z2~ or z3~ streams and their predictions. These are streams that are the result of merging two or three distributional transforms using a space-filling curve |
| space-filling curve | A map from the one dimension to two or three. See copulas |
| write key | A private unique identifier. See writekeys |
| difficulty | The number of recognizable characters beginning a public key. See writekeys |
| public key | The hash of a private key. See writekeys |
| code | Synonym for public key. See writekeys |
| memorable unique identifier | A synonym for private unique identifier. See writekeys |
| burn | To create a new write key by trial and error. See writekeys |
| bankruptcy | When the balance associated with a write key falls below a threshold negative number |
| transfer | To move balance from one write key to another |
| colab | A hosted Python notebook environment provided by Google. See New_Key for example. |
| slack | A chat service. See slack for invite. |
| ground truth | A scalar value sent to microprediction, to serve as a target. See publish |
| submit | To send 225 scalars to microprediction. See predict |
| client | Usually refers to the microprediction python package |
| leaderboard | Usually refers to leaderboards shown at microprediction.org |
| browser | Refers to microprediction.org. |
| dashboard | Refers to microprediction.org after you paste a write key in to see their performance and transactions. |
| lagged values | Refers to recent values of streams. See predict-using-python for usage example. |
| z1~ streams | Streams prefixed by z1~. See zscores |
| z2~ streams | Streams prefixed by z2~. See copulas |
| z3~ streams | Streams prefixed by z3~. See copulas |
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