Leaderboards

fasterfastestoverallresidual-k_001residual-k_002residual-k_003residual-k_005residual-k_008residual-k_013residual-k_021residual-k_034special-k_001special-k_002special-k_003special-k_005special-k_008special-k_013special-k_021special-k_034univariate-k_001univariate-k_002univariate-k_003univariate-k_005univariate-k_008univariate-k_013univariate-k_021univariate-k_034

Accuracy and Speed of Some Short Term Automated Time-Series Forecasting Approaches (Python Packages only)

The Elo Ratings in this table are produced transparently in the repo timeseries-elo-ratings and based on k-step ahead prediction duels using live time series data. See METHODOLOGY.md for interpretation of Elo ratings. The table named univariate-k_002 refers to 2-step ahead prediction, and so forth. Residual leaderboards use so-called z-streams (as explained in An Introduction to Z-Streams).

There is some motivation in the blog post Fast Python Time-Series Forecasting. All algorithms utilized here can be called the same way using the TimeMachines Python package. However, as indicated in the table, some of these draw an important part of their functionality (if not all) from other packages such as Facebook Prophet, Statsmodels TSA, Flux, PmdArima, Uber Orbit and more. Take relative performance with with a grain of salt, since many packages don't intend completely autonomous use and some are aimed at longer term seasonal forecasts. If you have a suggestion for a package or technique that should be included, please file an issue or, even better, add a skater and make a pull request. There is a guide for contributors and a long list of popular time-series packages.

Some of these methods are used in real-time to provide free prediction to anyone who publishes public data using a community API explained at microprediction.com. See the example crawlers folder for examples of algorithms calling the timemachines package. See the knowledge center or contributor guide for instructions on publishing live data that can influence these ratings.

NameRatingGamesActiveSecondsDependencies
slow_precision_ema_ensemble1861.023049yes0.3timemachines
thinking_slow_and_fast1813.029310yes0.1timemachines
slow_aggressive_ema_ensemble1797.026092yes0.3timemachines
slow_balanced_ema_ensemble1792.029987yes0.3timemachines
aggressive_ema_ensemble1772.026879yes0.3timemachines
precision_ema_ensemble1752.030644yes0.2timemachines
thinking_precision_ensemble1733.01287yes0.6timemachines
sluggish_moving_average1732.030718yes0.0timemachines
thinking_fast_and_slow1730.024214yes0.1timemachines
thinking_slow_and_slow1722.024116yes0.1timemachines
quick_precision_ema_ensemble1718.024907yes0.3timemachines
slowly_moving_average1710.031684yes0.0timemachines
balanced_ema_ensemble1706.027726yes0.2timemachines
quick_aggressive_ema_ensemble1701.047934yes0.3timemachines
quick_balanced_ema_ensemble1698.023316yes0.3timemachines
sk_theta1591.023762yes0.8sktime , timemachines
quickly_moving_average1553.029991yes0.0timemachines
rvr_slowly_hypocratic1505.011957yes0.5river , timemachines
thinking_fast_and_fast1487.023989yes0.1timemachines
darts_fft1485.01660yes0.7darts , timemachines
rvr_quickly_hypocratic1471.016481yes0.4river , timemachines
rapidly_moving_average1316.027881yes0.0timemachines
rvr_balanced_ensemble1271.015239yes0.4river , timemachines
empirical_last_value1075.018950yes0.0timemachines
rvr_p1_d0_q01067.017082yes0.0river , timemachines
rvr_p5_d0_q01049.014434yes0.1river , timemachines
rvr_p2_d0_q01004.020921yes0.0river , timemachines
rvr_p8_d0_q0955.012534yes0.1river , timemachines