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Performance of precise package users in the M6 financial forecasting contest

Update: See post for a discussion and medium article.

Who used it?

So far as I know there were only two teams out of 168 who have publically declared that they are using the precise package for the M6 Financial Forecasting Competition. If that’s not true, pull requests for this page are welcomed!

Handle Team details
MarcoGorelli Marco Gorelli
microprediction Peter Cotton

The probabilistic forecasting side starts to get into large n territory. Here are my percentiles thus far which hopefully speak for themselves.

Stage Percentile
Pilot 85
Q1 78
Q2 77
Q3 86
Q4 89
Overall 92

Marco is pretty close, and he won cash too! See below.

Pilot results

Marco didn’t use precise in the pilot.

Handle Overall (out of 59 teams) Forecasts Decisions
microprediction 9th 9th 31st

First quarter results

Congrats to Marco Gorelli for finishing 2nd in the overall ranking for the first quarter and taking home the money!

Handle Overall (out of 162 teams) Forecasts Decisions
MarcoGorelli 2nd 13th 14th
microprediction 15th 20th 60th

Second quarter results

Handle Overall (out of 199 teams) Forecasts Decisions
MarcoGorelli 41st 48th 71st
microprediction 91st 46th 128th

Third quarter results

Handle Overall (out of 230 teams) Forecasts Decisions
MarcoGorelli 92nd 80th 116th
microprediction 52st 28th 131th

Forth quarter results

Marco switched to holding a riskless asset.

Handle Overall (out of 230 teams) Forecasts Decisions
microprediction 10th 27th 31st


Handle Overall (out of 148 teams) Forecasts Decisions
MarcoGorelli 10th 16th 46th
microprediction 8th 14th 34th


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